Politics 13th July 2026· Tharaka Nithi

Tharaka Nithi 2027 Poll Projections

A county-wide public opinion survey measuring voter preferences for the 2027 elections across the gubernatorial, senatorial, woman representative and parliamentary races in Tharaka Nithi. The poll presents field-verified projections based on Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI).

Summary

The report presents Timely Kenya's projections for the 2027 electoral contests in Tharaka Nithi County, covering the governor, senator, woman representative and all three parliamentary constituencies. Results indicate a competitive gubernatorial race led by Prof. Erastus Njoka with a significant share of undecided voters, while Senator Muthomi Njuki holds a strong lead in the senatorial contest.

Governor: Prof. Erastus Njoka leads with 25.5%, followed by Susan Ngugi Mwindu (21.1%), George Murugara (17.0%) and Kareke Mbiuki (10.2%), with 25.7% undecided.
Senator: Incumbent Muthomi Njuki leads with 40.3%, ahead of Samuel Ragwa (24.6%).
Woman Representative: The race remains highly competitive, led by Wanja M'Rithaa (18.9%), with Christine Gitari (15.5%), Lisabeth Gatiria (15.0%) and Diana Mbuba (12.8%), alongside a large undecided vote.
Parliamentary races: Paul Mugambi leads comfortably in Tharaka Constituency, Kaburu Bongo leads in Maara, while Chuka Igambang'ombe remains highly competitive between Patrick Munene and John Mbabu.

Research methodology

sample Size

718 respondents

period

13–15 July 2026

method

Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI) conducted across the three constituencies using quota sampling based on KNBS population estimates

Key findings

Prof. Erastus Njoka leads the gubernatorial race with 25.5%.
Muthomi Njuki holds a commanding senatorial lead at 40.3%.
The Woman Representative contest remains highly competitive.
Large undecided voter blocs remain in several races.

Key observations

The gubernatorial contest remains fragmented with substantial undecided voters.
Incumbency appears strongest in the senatorial race.
Parliamentary races vary significantly across constituencies.
The survey covered all three constituencies in the county.

Politics 13th July 2026· Tharaka Nithi

Tharaka Nithi 2027 Poll Projections

Summary

Governor: Prof. Erastus Njoka leads with 25.5%, followed by Susan Ngugi Mwindu (21.1%), George Murugara (17.0%) and Kareke Mbiuki (10.2%), with 25.7% undecided.
Senator: Incumbent Muthomi Njuki leads with 40.3%, ahead of Samuel Ragwa (24.6%).
Woman Representative: The race remains highly competitive, led by Wanja M'Rithaa (18.9%), with Christine Gitari (15.5%), Lisabeth Gatiria (15.0%) and Diana Mbuba (12.8%), alongside a large undecided vote.
Parliamentary races: Paul Mugambi leads comfortably in Tharaka Constituency, Kaburu Bongo leads in Maara, while Chuka Igambang'ombe remains highly competitive between Patrick Munene and John Mbabu.

Research methodology

sample Size

718 respondents

period

13–15 July 2026

method

Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI) conducted across the three constituencies using quota sampling based on KNBS population estimates

Key findings

Prof. Erastus Njoka leads the gubernatorial race with 25.5%.
Muthomi Njuki holds a commanding senatorial lead at 40.3%.
The Woman Representative contest remains highly competitive.
Large undecided voter blocs remain in several races.

Key observations

The gubernatorial contest remains fragmented with substantial undecided voters.
Incumbency appears strongest in the senatorial race.
Parliamentary races vary significantly across constituencies.
The survey covered all three constituencies in the county.