This County Series 2026 study by Timely Kenya is a four-county panel measuring incumbent standing and re-election competitiveness ahead of 2027. Each ballot line — Governor, Senator and Woman Rep — was tested independently against declared or credibly-rumoured aspirants, drawing on 1,211 respondents.
- Samburu: Jackson Lekumontare leads the gubernatorial race county-wide 55% to Lati Lellelit's 45%, though Lati flips Samburu West. The Senate race is a four-way statistical tie (Lemagas 27.0% edging Lemetian 26.8%), while Pauline Lenguris leads the Woman Rep race at 39%.
- Meru: The most competitive county — Isaac Mutuma edges Peter Munya 36.8% to 32.2% for Governor (4.6-point spread) in a four-way race; Mugambi Imanyara leads the Senate at 31.0%; Florence Kajuju narrowly leads the Woman Rep race at 30%.
- Embu: Gitonga Mukunji leads the Governor race at 39.1% over Cecily Mbarire (33%); Pithon Michuki leads the Senate at 34.2%; Pamela Njoki holds a commanding 20-point Woman Rep lead at 45%.
- Isiolo: A tight four-way gubernatorial scramble with Abdi Guyo (29%) leading Mohammed Roba (27%) by just 8 points over the field; Senator Fatuma Dullo holds a 34-point Senate lead (67%) and eyes the governor's seat; Rehema Jaldesa leads the Woman Rep race at 37%.
